The main question which those following the Ukrainian crisis can ask themselves boils down to one word: “Why?” Why have they done this? Answering this question is easy if we take for granted that the decision to send saboteurs to Crimea was taken not in Kiev, and didn’t even factor in the interests of Ukraine or the Kiev regime. One can easily see the greasy fingerprints of Hillary Clinton and her supporters in this provocation who are largely found among the American intelligence services and diplomatic corps. They have very recognizable handwriting.
The goal of the Crimea operation was clear: achieving what didn’t happen in 2014, i.e., a full-fledged war. This would have allowed one of the main goals of American policy to be realized: completely and once and for all cutting off Europe from Russia and stuffing the EU with expensive American liquified gas and striking at the Russian economy with an oil embargo and possible exclusion from SWIFT, thereby turning Russia into some kind of bigger Iran.
I quite easily noticed the recognizable style of our overseas opponents, who now very much need a good real war in Europe. They already made a similar attempt using a Turkish fighter as the tool, but this failed. The Americans are famous for using their favorite methods to infinity regardless of the outcome.
Recently, Putin completely outplayed the Americans in the Syrian and Turkish crises. The whole story of Erdogan’s transformation from an enemy into one compelled to seek an ally in Russia looks like an especially painful one for the Americans. Their emotions are understandable, so they decided to strike where they had big chances of success. This time, however, their efforts failed, for which we have to thank our heroes from the special services and other security structures.
The Russian government had three days to think over the situation and make a decision. Did you all notice how this subject actively emerged in the information field only three days after the incident? It would have been easy to hush up the incident and not make it public, but the country’s leadership decided to do otherwise. You can be absolutely sure that all the consequences of this step, and any consequential moves, were well calculated.
In the case of Turkey, it is clear that Vladimir Putin is a true master of asymmetrical and very effective pressure. It is clear that pressure will be put on Ukraine, but gently and creatively. Ukraine is not Turkey, and there is only one plus for Ukraine in comparing the two countries: we can’t just turn off the gas as long as we need their pipe to continue our shipments to Europe.
But Ukraine does have many more minuses.
Let’s begin with the fact that even now, economic ties with Russia are more important for Ukraine than they ever have been for Turkey. Turkey is still more focused on European and Asian markets, albeit that Russia’s measures of economic influence were very painful. A similar situation would be even more painful for Ukraine. The Turkish economy is way more stable than Ukraine’s, which has long since been plunged into crisis and can’t get out. There are more than enough points to painfully pressure the Kiev regime.
Another important thing needs to be considered which many people know of, but which almost no one is talking about. One of the means of punishing and pressuring Erdogan was supporting Turkish Kurds, which created a huge headache for Turkish authorities. If Erdogan had not made a sharp geopolitical turn, the situation could have ended with an independent Kurdistan, albeit small and not recognized by the international community.
Sure, someone can say that there are no Kurds in Ukraine. But there are the DPR and LPR. Amidst the freezing over of the Normandy Format which Putin already announced, a sharp increase in tacit support for the DPR and LPR in itself could lead to rather sad consequences for the Kiev regime. In the shoes of Ukrainian politicians, I would be very worried by such a possible turn of events. Even they have the hunch that the Kiev regime will be beaten. Quietly, without fanfare and emotion, but effectively. Poroshenko has reason to be jealous of Erdogan. The Turkish leader had the opportunity to apologize and correct things, which he is now trying to do. But Poroshenko doesn’t have such an opportunity, but this is already solely his problem.